Well, well, well… If you haven’t heard the news today, let me fill you in. According to Bloomberg and Reuters, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby has been pitching the idea of merging United Airlines with American Airlines to senior government officials — including reportedly floating the idea directly to President Trump during a White House meeting back in late February!
Let that sink in for a minute.
UNITED and AMERICAN. Two of the biggest airlines on the PLANET, merging into ONE. A combined airline with over $100 billion in revenue and more than 2,800 aircraft. The LARGEST airline in the world. By far.
And my first reaction? Absolutely not.
Haven’t We Been Down This Road Before?
If you’ve been following the airline industry for the last 15-20 years like I have, you know EXACTLY where this leads. We’ve watched it happen over, and over, and over again. Let me refresh your memory, because some of you may have forgotten just how many airlines we’ve LOST:
- 2005: America West acquires US Airways
- 2008: Delta merges with Northwest Airlines — bye bye Northwest!
- 2010: United merges with Continental Airlines — goodbye Continental!
- 2011: Southwest acquires AirTran — see ya AirTran!
- 2013: American merges with US Airways — and US Airways disappears forever!
That’s FIVE major airlines that have vanished in less than a decade! And you know what? At the beginning of the 2000s, the “Big 4” airlines (American, Delta, United, Southwest) controlled just over 50% of all the seats in the US market. Today? According to Skift, they control nearly 80%! Let me say that again — FOUR airlines control almost 80% of every single seat on every single flight in the United States!
And now Scott Kirby wants to make it the Big THREE?!
Every Single Time, They Promise It’ll Be Better for YOU
Here’s what kills me. Every single time one of these mergers is announced, the executives come out and say the same thing: “This will benefit the consumer!” “More destinations!” “Better service!” “Improved connectivity!”
You know what ACTUALLY happens? Fares go up. Loyalty programs get gutted. Routes get cut. Service gets WORSE. And the people who suffer the most? The loyal passengers who stuck with these airlines for YEARS.
I’ve seen it firsthand. I’ve LIVED it. I used to be loyal — Diamond Medallion with Delta, loyal to a fault. And you know what loyalty got me? A front row seat to watching every airline slowly strip away the things that made them worth being loyal TO. I wrote about this extensively in my article about how the entire travel loyalty landscape has changed.
I’m loyal to NO ONE now. And you know why? Because when there’s no real competition, airlines don’t HAVE to earn your loyalty anymore. They don’t have to try. Where are you going to go? There’s only 4 options! Make it 3, and it gets even worse.
Let’s Talk About These Two Airlines Specifically
Now, let’s be real about the two airlines we’re talking about here. United and American are NOT exactly known for being shining examples of customer service.
United? This is the airline that literally had a paying passenger, Dr. David Dao, DRAGGED off a plane in 2017, bloodied and bruised, because they oversold the flight! That image is burned into everyone’s memory. That incident alone tells you everything you need to know about how some of these airlines view their passengers — as cattle, not customers.
American? American USED to be a great airline. Many, many years ago. But over the last several years, American has fallen behind Delta AND United — and I’m not just talking about premium cabins, I’m talking about the OVERALL product and experience. From service, to reliability, to their loyalty program, to the way they treat their passengers — American has dropped the ball across the board. They’ve been struggling, and their stock is down 27% this year alone. Their market cap is only $7.4 billion compared to United’s $31 billion. This isn’t a merger of equals — this is United looking to swallow American whole!
The Hypocrisy of It All
If you read my article from 2019, “Is Delta The Pot Calling the Kettle Black?”, you know I have NO problem calling out hypocrisy in the airline industry. In that article I pointed out how Delta’s CEO Ed Bastian was complaining about Middle Eastern airlines like Qatar Airways, Emirates, and Etihad getting government subsidies — while Delta itself was financially entangled with government-owned and government-subsidized airlines around the world! China Eastern? Government owned. KLM/AirFrance? Partially government controlled. And let’s not forget, US airlines have received BILLIONS in government assistance through bankruptcies, COVID relief money, and various other bailouts over the years.
The same hypocrisy applies here. These airlines scream “free market!” when it benefits them, and “protect American jobs!” when they want to block competition. But then they turn around and want to ELIMINATE competition through mergers! You can’t have it both ways!
The “Tangled Web” Gets Even More Tangled
Back in 2019, I wrote an article called “Oh! What a Tangled Web We Weave: Delta Airlines” — where I mapped out the entire web of Delta’s ownership stakes in airlines around the world. It was COMPLICATED, and it was meant to be. These airlines have financial interests in each other, in foreign airlines, in alliances, and it all creates a web that the average passenger can’t even begin to understand.
Now imagine adding THIS merger on top of it all. United is a founding member of the Star Alliance. American is a founding member of Oneworld. These are the two largest global airline alliances! What happens to those alliances? What happens to the millions of passengers who chose one airline specifically BECAUSE of its alliance partners? Your AAdvantage miles that you’ve been saving for a Qatar Airways flight — what happens to those? Your MileagePlus status that gets you Star Alliance Gold lounge access around the world — does that just disappear?
Nobody is talking about this, and they SHOULD be. This isn’t just about two American airlines combining. This has ripple effects across the ENTIRE global aviation industry.
If you really want to understand how we got here — how the airline industry went from dozens of competitors to an oligopoly — I highly recommend the book Hard Landing by Thomas Petzinger Jr. It covers the epic battle for power and profits that shaped today’s airline industry. Reading it is like reading a prediction of exactly what’s happening right now.
What This REALLY Means for You, The Passenger
Let me break it down simply:
Less competition — We go from 4 major carriers to 3. That means even less incentive to compete on price, service, or loyalty benefits. When’s the last time an airline lowered fares because they wanted your business? Exactly.
Higher fares — Antitrust experts are already warning about this. When you reduce competition, prices go UP. That’s not theory — that’s basic economics, and we’ve seen it happen with every previous merger. And if you haven’t already read my article on Airline Bag Fees 2026, go read it — fares AND fees are going up across the board!
Route cuts — Both United and American have major hubs in Chicago. They both have significant operations in New York, Los Angeles, and other major cities. When two airlines merge, they don’t keep ALL the routes — they cut the “redundant” ones. And those “redundant” routes? Those are YOUR options for getting where you need to go.
Loyalty program chaos — Every merger results in loyalty program changes, and those changes NEVER benefit the everyday traveler. They benefit the airline. If you don’t believe me, just look at what happened with the Starwood and Marriott merger in the hotel world. I was VERY loyal to SPG — Starwood had one of the best loyalty programs in the entire travel industry. Then Marriott bought them and promised the world. “It’ll be better!” “More options!” “More benefits!” And after it was all said and done? The program went from feeling like a five-star experience to feeling like Motel 6. The same thing WILL happen here.
Job losses — Despite what they’ll tell you, mergers ALWAYS result in job losses. Redundant positions get eliminated. Hubs get downsized. Cities lose service.
Look, I can’t control what these CEOs do in their boardrooms. But I CAN control how I travel. Over the years I’ve learned that investing in your own comfort is the best loyalty program there is — because no merger can take that away from you. A good pair of noise cancelling headphones like the Bose QuietComfort Ultra makes even the worst airline experience bearable. A solid carry-on like the Travelpro Platinum Elite means you don’t have to deal with their bag fee nonsense.
Will This Actually Happen?
Here’s the thing — even with a business-friendly administration, this is a MASSIVE deal to push through. The Department of Justice blocked JetBlue from buying Spirit Airlines, which was a FAR smaller deal than this one. A federal judge ordered the JetBlue-American alliance in the Northeast dismantled on antitrust grounds. And that was just an ALLIANCE, not a full merger!
As CNBC reported today, this deal would face enormous regulatory scrutiny. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has signaled openness to consolidation, but this would be on a scale we’ve never seen before.
Scott Kirby is smart — nobody doubts that. The man was literally the president of American Airlines before he went to United, so he knows both airlines inside and out. But floating this idea feels more like a chess move than a serious proposal. Maybe he’s testing the political waters. Maybe he’s positioning for a smaller deal. Or maybe he’s just trying to send a message to the market.
But I’ll tell you this — if this merger actually goes through, it would be the final nail in the coffin of real competition in the American airline industry. We would be left with three mega-carriers and a handful of budget airlines fighting over the scraps.
My Take
I’ve been writing about the travel industry for over 10 years. I’ve been a loyal passenger, a harsh critic, and everything in between. And I can tell you without hesitation — MORE consolidation is NOT what the flying public needs. What we need is MORE competition, not less. What we need is airlines that have to EARN our business, not airlines that are so big they don’t have to care.
The airline industry in America has become an oligopoly, plain and simple. And this potential merger would only make it worse.
To Scott Kirby and United Airlines, I say this: Instead of trying to buy your competition, how about you try OUTCOMPETING them? Give us better service. Give us loyalty programs that actually reward loyalty. Give us a reason to CHOOSE your airline. Because THAT’S how you win in business — not by eliminating the other options.
P.S. — If you want to support TouringTony and help me keep writing articles like this, check out my product recommendations above. I only recommend things I personally use and believe in. Every purchase through my links helps keep this site running!
Thanks for reading, and PLEASE, TRAVEL MORE!
What do you think about a potential United-American merger? Am I right, or am I wrong? Drop a comment below — I want to hear from YOU!
Tony Baker is a travel blogger, social media influencer, tourism & hospitality consultant, and hotel critic who splits his time between Oklahoma, USA and Rio de Janiero, Brazil. He has been writing about the travel industry at TouringTony.com since 2015.
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